Author: Matthew Le Merle
Black Swans—unanticipated, catastrophic events—are impossible to predict on an individual basis, but they regularly occur. Too often, the boards and leaders of large companies are unaware of the risks involved in these events, unnecessarily exposing their organizations, their shareholders, and themselves to grave consequences.
The solution to this problem is disrupter analysis. Disrupter analyses supplement the everyday work of the enterprise risk management (ERM) function and are often conducted by external parties. They are achieved using a four-step process that maps the shape of the company; collects and synthesizes a broad list of potential high-magnitude, low-frequency events; determines their consequences; and implements preventive measures to ensure that the company is adequately protected.